So this week’s hand on the podcast is all about getting value. The main questions I’m posing in this analysis are about how to best get value from villain’s marginal hands. Here is a quick recap of the action.
Dave opens to $12 utg+1 (covers) with KK. MP ($500) calls. Everyone else folds.
Flop (25) KK7r.
Dave checks, villain checks.
Turn (25) 5, completing rainbow.
Dave bets 15, villain min-raises to 30, Dave makes it 60, villain calls.
River (145) 2
Dave bets 200, villain calls.
So I think Dave’s opening range probably looks something like this in early position.
You may be wondering why this range is important since we know Dave’s true holdings. To me, the value of looking at this range is in trying to gauge how his opponent should play against his range, and hopefully how our opponent will play against him.
Villain called in middle position. I think many players at $1/$2 call fairly wide and don’t three bet often. Therefore, I think villain’s flatting range resembles the following range.
A couple of notes on this range. I think villain will sometimes 3-bet JJ and sometimes flat QQ. Since there isn’t a huge difference in value the way the board came out, I just included all JJ and no QQ since I think it closely reflects the combos of high pairs in villain’s range. Villain may also flat some AK/AQ, but AK is irrelevant given the runout, and AQs vs AJs has a similar treatment to QQ and JJ. A more accurate range probably includes half of AQs and one combo of QQ.
Flop KK7r (25)
So looking at Villain’s range on flop, I notice he has a decent amount of 7’s and a lot of pairs. Still, it would hard to get more than 1 street of value from these hands and villain may bet for protection anyways. Villain also has a lot of A high that could call one street, but seems unlikely given opponents description as a passive player.
A good question to ask ourselves is how should villain bet when checked to? It’s not a terrible idea for villain to check his whole range since he has very few hands that could comfortably get three streets of value. If villain wants to have a betting range, it would probably include 77, kq, and maybe kj for value. He should then probably balance that with qj, qt, jt with backdoor flush draws. That still leaves villain a little value heavy, so he could include 98, t8, t9 w/ backdoor flush draw as well.
Perhaps a better question would be what is villain actually betting given the knowledge that there are no kings in range. It is unlikely that villain has a smart bluffing range and very conceivable that villain has no bluffing range. A flop bet seems very likely to be for protection, so the range probably includes some combination of pairs are betting, maybe some A high.
Above is an estimate of villain’s flop checking range. The hands that I’m having Villain bet are AJs, 99, 88, 97, 87 to represent the protection betting portion of Villain’s range. I’m having Villain bet QJs as a potential educated bluffing hand. I also think Villain will bet about half of 77. I think JJ and TT are more likely to check since they have less to fear on the turn and river. Basically, this shows that we should not raise if Villain does bet the flop since we are likely to shut out any future value from this betting range excluding 77.
In game, Dave checks and the villain checks. We see an offsuit 5 on the turn.
Considering Villain’s range on the turn, I’m not sure we should be value betting yet. Villain turned a lot of straight draws, 98, 86, 64. Villain’s value range includes 55, 77. I think when we check, a similar thing is likely to happen that happened on a flop. JJ, TT, 76, 75, 55 are all likely to bet. There is also a ton of air still in the range that could decide to bluff in addition to some nice bluffing hands like the straight draws. Villain has not turned many hands that will call two streets so I think a check is still best. When we bet call turn, we have a tough decision on the river in terms of checking or leading. I think a small lead is likely best since almost all pairs are checking back. It would be nice to give the missed bluffs an opportunity to continue, but if that seems unlikely, then leading is almost certainly best.
Dave ended up betting 15 into 25, and the villain raised to 30. As played, I think villain’s turn raising range looks something like this.