First, as always, a quick recap of the podcast hand...
Preflop: UTG+1 Posts and checks, Hero raises to $12 in MP with AA, Folds to UTG+1 who calls. 200 eff, Hero covers.
Flop (27) 822r
Villain checks, Hero bets 15, Villain raises to 30, Hero calls
Turn (87) T bringing backdoor FD
Villain bets 30, Hero calls
River (1295) 5r
Villain bets 100, Hero folds face up, villain shows KJo
So I think the two main decisions are whether should we raise the turn and should we jam the river. On the podcast, Zach and I agreed that villain's bluff-ratio is almost certainly too high to ever fold the river. For the same reason, I'm almost sure flatting the turn is best, but we will take a look anyways.
As always, let's begin by ranging villain preflop.
So, I'm making this range maybe even a little wider than I think it should be and I'm including A2o just to make things interesting. If we feel good about our play against this range, then I think we will feel even better against a more realistic range that maybe doesn't include 52s and A2o.
So the raise OTF is pretty weird. The quickness of the raise would suggest that the range is quite polarized. However, I think the quick min-raise is generally just extremely bluff heavy. I think a good way to range this bet is to include some hands of all types but keep in 50% of this player's bluffs. Since there are no real semibluffs on this flop and this bet seems so bluffy, I think a 50% bluff ratio is a nice floor. Just to keep it interesting, I'll keep in all combos of 2x+. I'm also going to keep in overpairs since I think those will likely check-raise, although the timing seems a little suspect.
So I tried to be pretty equitable with how much of each potential bluff card villain has in this turn range. It's interesting to note OTT villain has about 34 combos of Tx. That compares nicely with the 13 combos of 2x and 6 combos of sets. I think the combinatorics suggest that a turn raise is at least plausible since a player who was bluffing and turned top pair (two pair no-less) is going to be hesitant to fold. Also, a decent number of the bluffs turned flush draws. Still, I think we miss enough value from bluffs that it's worth flatting. Some opponent's may fold most of this range to a raise here, which would be a disaster.
While the turn play may be more in question, the river play is not. Villain is never folding a ten, so we should absolutely jam, case closed.