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Preflop: MP limps. Hero opens KK to 12 in CO. TAG calls OTB. HU to flop.
Flop (25) Jd 9h 7h
Hero checks. Villain bets 25. Hero folds face up. Villain shows JThh
This week we did our second episode where we used a listener hand that was voice memoed in as opposed to written in. To start off, let's range that 'straightforward' player who wasn't getting too out of line but semibluffed once or twice when he calls a $12 CO open over a limp on the button.
I put that he would flat half of his combos of AK and JJ. The button should be calling wider and 3betting more often but given the player description and the fact that Brian and him were talking and being friendly, I think he was even more likely not to want 'play back at him'.
Against this range Brian has 70% equity on the Jh9d7d flop. Like we discussed on the podcast, we thought by checking in this spot, Brian was missing a ton of value from both worse made hands and draws. For exploitable reasons bet-folding or bet calling and folding to a large turn bet, or bet calling and folding to any bet on a scare card that brought in straights and flushes seemed like the best option at the time.
For a check call to be more profitable than betting, this player would have correctly fold a lot of one pair hands like 9s and 7s, as well as some draws to a bet while betting all of those hands and a good deal of air when checked to. Given the player description, this seemed very unlikely. For check raising to get it in to be correct the opponent would have to get it in really light, with hands like 98s, J10s, AJo etc. and this also seemed quite unlikely.
Once Brian checks though and his opponent bets the pot, Brian no longer has 70% equity against his opponent. Even if this player is semibluffing a ton, which given the description Brian gave I don't see as very likely, he's still doing very well against this range. Let's say the button is semibluffing all of his semibluffs and even bluffing with a few middle, bottom, and small pocket pairs to try and take it down.
Brian has 65% equity against this range.
Now let's see what happens if the player is never semibluffing and only betting made hands better than JT.
Brian still has 53% equity even against this incredibly conservative range! With the player description in mind, it will be very easy to realize his equity as I can't imagine this player would bet another jack except maybe AJ when checked to on a blank turn.
Given he only needed 33% percent equity to have a break even call, once Brian checks this was a clear call.
If you enjoyed this in depth analysis, check out a crazy hand we analyzed between Matt Berkey and Jennifer Tilly on the show Poker Night in America.