First a recap of this week's hand...
Location: Sands Casino
Preflop: UTG+1 limps, Hero raises to 12 OTB with TT, SB calls, UTG+1 calls. Hero is effective stack with 205
Flop (35) 9h8h2c
Checks to hero who bets 30. Both villains call.
Turn (123) 4s
Checks to hero who ships for 163. Both villains call.
River (612) 7h
SB had Ah7h. UTG+1 had 88. SB scoops
This week's hand was fairly straightforward. We had a case of our listener writing in double checking his line since he ran into some monsters. I'm fairly confident that our listener played the hand correctly. The one spot that seems most questionable is the turn. I think a good method to evaluate this hand is to create a worst case scenario OTT and see how our EV looks. If we are +EV in the worst case, we should be confident our play was correct, or at least good.
First, let's start with our opponents' ranges. I'm giving UTG+1 45% of hands. I'm including all premiums since this is a worst case scenario and our listener claims this opponent always limps.
I'm giving SB 35% of hands and taking out a likely strong 3-betting range.
The Worst Case
Let's bypass the flop since it seems like a standard bet against these players. OTT, what would be a worst case scenario look like? Let's say the SB will only call with an overpair+, nut flush draws, and combo draws. If SB calls, UTG+1 will call TPTK+, flush draws, and OESDs. If SB folds, UTG+1 will call top pair+ and flush draws. OTR, our opponents always check. Given opponent descriptions, this seems near the worst case.
Our bet is still massively +EV. We profit $88 from this bet. It's basically impossible for us to create a situation where this bet isn't +EV since we have 59% equity against the likely turn ranges. If we only get called when we are beat, then we end up folding out such a huge portion of our opponent's ranges that we still profit ridiculously. If that were the case, there may be a better action, perhaps a smaller bet, but it's very unlikely to be true given the descriptions of our opponents.
It's understandable for our listener to question his decision. He ran into a set and a nut flush draw that got there. That would shake someone who thought they made a great play. However, the math suggests that he just got incredibly unlucky.
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