For a recap of the hand discussed this week:
Location: Foxwoods Casino
Preflop: two limps, Hero raises to 1000 in EP with AThh, two players after Hero call, and the limpers call. Effective stacks are 130 BB
Flop (5000) T72r
Checks to hero, Hero checks, callers check behind.
Turn (5000) 2 (bringing a flush draw)
First limper leads for 1200, second limper calls, Hero raises to 5000, callers fold, first limper calls, and second limper folds.
River (15000) 5
Checks to Hero, Hero bets 13000?
In this hand, we had four major decisions. Two of those decisions were matters of sizing. I won't explore those here since they were based on exploitative assumptions that are fairly binary in nature. Our turn raise sizing is basically a matter of ranging our two opponents who have put money in the pot, picking a sizing, and deciding how many of our opponents worse hands will call. Each of our opponent's hands basically present a binary yes/no decision that we will try and predict based on exploitative assumptions. Given the exploitative assumptions outlined in our discussion on the podcast, there is not much more to say about the question of sizing at these two decision points.
Therefore, I think the more interesting questions are 1) how often will our opponent's bet when checked to OTF, and 2) how often are we beat OTT. Bet-sizing tells suggest that the initial bettor OTT will rarely ever have us beat. I'm more interested in how often our other opponent's may have the best hand.
OTF we have two opponents left to act after hero checks. For simplicity's sake and since we didn't get much information from hero, let's assume those two opponents called our preflop raise in position with the following range.
The hands with a green line are 50% combos and hands with a blue line are 75%. Unfortunately, the borderline hands are very important for this decision, so a slight disagreement preflop would have drastic changes. Mainly, more middle card hands like 96s and J9o will lead to a much higher percentage of bets from the two overcallers.
Given this range, if our opponents are betting any top-pair+ hands as well as any gutshot+ draws, we can expect to see a bet from one of the two overcallers 47% of the time. I think that makes checking an excellent play since we will face a bet, mostly from worse, about 47% of the time, and we also get free information and avoid bet-folding this flop to a bluff. I think a betting range of top-pair+ and any gutshot is a little ambitious in a 5-way pot, but Daryl seemed to think these players were going to bet at a high frequency making this 47% seem like a plausible figure. However, if we thought these opponents would only bet JT+ and 8 out straight draws, that figure drops to 35%.
Given the previously assigned ranges and a generic overlimping range for the second limper, our hand is good OTT over 95% of the time when we assume the player who led 1200 never has us beat. Of course, this player could just be using a small sizing with a random 2 or a full house, but it seems very unlikely. A 7 is actually a much worse card given these ranges. On a 7 turn, we will be beat by the 3 players who did not lead the turn about 18% of the time. Both of those calculations assume that the second limper will never raise a strong hand OTT. If this is not true, then both of these frequencies will be reduced.
Clearly, with such a huge equity advantage and clear value targets, Darly's turn value raise was gold. While it was read influenced, it's still very difficult for him not to have the best hand given preflop play and the action up to this point postflop. If Daryl is going to be checking his entire range OTF, then I think he should be raising quite often OTT. On this turn card, arguably one of the best, that value raising range should be particularly wide.
On low-card fairly dry flops in large multiway pots, even a wide betting range won't add up to a huge betting frequency between one or two opponents. Therefore, when we check a strong hand hoping to induce a bet, we should have additional reasons to check. In this circumstance, I believe we clearly do.
Another takeaway that I alluded to more subtly is the importance of determining the composition of a limping range on a board like this. Some opponents will almost always limp low pocket pairs, suited aces, some suited connectors, and not much else. If that were the case, our opponent who led the turn would not have very many tens in their range. They would have many more flush draws. On the other hand, a player who is going to be limping a lot of offsuit broadway hands will show up with a ton of Tx here. We can gauge this in part from preflop frequencies, but it's also something to look for in limp pots that get to showdown.
Finally, people don't play many dueces, and for good reason.
As always, feel free to share any questions or comments in the comments section below.
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