Snap-Shove on the River

What’s up readers? I’m excited to announce that my winning streak is still alive and well, this past week being my 7th winning week in a row. It’s been a pretty unreal ride thus far, and the success I’ve been having over the last couple months is definitely boosting my confidence. As for my weekly goals, I was a bit lazy. I only played 30 hours, studied for 5, mediated thrice, and ran just once. I’ve mentioned before that when I go on these big heaters my motivation tends to fall off a bit, mostly because the money seems to be coming so easily. I need to work hard to avoid this kind of thinking and really push myself to continue to study hard and put in lots of volume. In terms of EV, putting in less volume when I’m running well is definitely a leak of mine. I should be putting in extra volume now since my image has been God-like over the majority of my recent sessions, and I should do what I can to capitalize on that.

I’ve also been lazy with my PLO endeavor that I brought up several weeks ago. I guess I got side tracked for a bit with my tournament studying, but now that I’ve come back into reality and realized that tournaments are a joke, I feel I should be shifting some of my study time back to learning “The Devil’s Game,” as it’s called by a handful of bad regs at the Jack. I’ll look to put in a minimum of 4 hours of PLO studying in the upcoming week.

An interesting spot came up in one of my 2-5 sessions:

Game: 2-5 NL, 7 handed

Hero: (750) Button with Ac9c. Hero has only been at table for a couple orbits and has opened 2-3 hands and taken them all down with C-bets on the flop. Hero has played a short session with the villain in question before and is likely viewed as aggressive and competent.

Villain: (500) 40-50 year old recreational player. Usually plays tournaments but occasionally will come and sit at 2-5 when he busts. My sample with him is somewhat small. He has shown some super stationy tendencies. He plays too loose preflop, limping around 25-35% of hands and raising 5-10%. I’ve also seen villain open K2s ep and proceed to double barrel with total air.

Preflop (7): V limps UTG, fish limps MP, folds to hero who raises to 35, V calls, fish folds.

I think this is a pretty standard raise as this hand is doing quite well against both players’ limping ranges, we have position, and we can likely isolate one or both of these weaker players. I should also note that the blinds were not particularly active 3betters which makes raising this hand even better.

Flop (75): 9d5d4s. V checks, Hero bets 45, V quickly calls.

Not much to say about this street. V likely has lots of 9x, some 5 and 4x, many FD’s, 67s-78s and possibly some combos of 67o-78o, and 68s. V can also possibly have some sets, mainly 55 and 44 that he’s elected to slow play.

Turn (165): 7h. V checks, hero bets 110, V quickly calls.

This is a card that definitely hits V’s range, but given his station-like tendencies I think we should still be going for some thinnish value. When V quickly calls again I think his range looks very similar to it did on the flop, although it now likely contains less of the 5x and 4x type hands that didn’t pick up some sort of straight draw on this turn. Sets can also be discounted as I think a lot of them would have raised/ led out by now.

River (385): 7c. V snap shoves for 295. Hero calls.

This was a pretty tough and weird spot. We’re calling 295 to win 680 so we need about 30% equity for this to be a profitable call. I think V can have 7x here in the form of 67 and 78 type hands as well as 7xdd, but ultimately decided that V was unlikely to just snap shove such strong hands without really putting in any thought. I think as a general rule these kinds of snap shoves vs recreational players tend to be bluff-heavy. I also thought hands like 55 and 44 were somewhat unlikely as V would likely have check/raised or led out at some point prior to the river in fear of being drawn out on (obviously not necessarily correct thinking, at least not for that reason, but I think rec players generally fear being sucked out and would raise/ lead for protection as well as value).

Results: Villain tables 98cc, and hero scoops :). Not really sure what V was thinking here. He does have some nice blockers but I think his hand has way too much showdown value to be turning it into a bluff. After making this call, I was a bit skeptical as to whether or not it was correct, but after having run it by the Just Hands Slack Group, I am pretty confident I made the right play. To anyone reading who’s not a member of the group, I highly recommend checking it out. It’s made up of a bunch of high-level thinking players who are all looking to talk strategy, improve, and get feedback on their play. It’s definitely great value for players looking to sharpen their game. Signing off for now. Until next week, happy grinding!