Bluff-Jamming the River when Facing a 2.5x Overbet

Given our read on the turn and the fact that jamming here only needs to work about 71% of the time to be profitable, I honestly think jamming any two cards as an exploit against this specific opponent is going to be printing money. My exact hand is also one of my best bluffing candidates, as I hold blockers to villain’s most likely 5x and 3x hands, which are what he’s representing when he goes for the 2.5x pot bet here (I think over pairs would likely elect to choose a smaller sizing).

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Bluff-Raising the River

If we think the villain is capable of value-betting thinly, we should be more likely to bluff-raise them as we can put them in a tough spot with their non-nut hands. If villain is only betting a polarized range, then it makes sense to hero call, because bluff-raising will result in the villain folding all of their bluffs and calling with all of their nut or near-nut hands.

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